Russia’s presidential administration lowered United Russia’s expected result in the State Duma elections to roughly 45% in a number of regions in mid-July, Meduza reported, citing regional officials, party representatives and a source close to the presidential administration.
According to the outlet, the target for some regions had stood at 55% in the spring, was subsequently lowered to about 50%, and then reduced again to roughly 45% in mid-July. The turnout target for those regions remained at about 50%, Meduza’s sources said.
Nationwide, the outlet’s sources estimated the Kremlin’s preferred result for United Russia at approximately 45–50%.
One official involved in preparing the elections said the lower target reflected the need to take the party’s actual polling numbers into account. Sources also suggested that an unusually high official result could look implausible against the backdrop of current support levels.
The figures are unofficial performance targets attributed to the presidential administration and have not been publicly confirmed by the Kremlin.
The targets later changed again. In September, Meduza reported that the presidential administration had raised its expectations for some regions. The July figures therefore reflect one stage of campaign planning rather than the Kremlin’s final election targets.