The Bank of Russia's board of directors kept its key interest rate at 14% per year on October 23. The central bank acknowledged that underlying price pressures remained elevated and raised its forecast for inflation at the end of 2026 to 7.1–7.6%.
The bank estimated that annual inflation stood at 6.8% as of October 19, while underlying price growth was running at an annualized 5–6%. Seasonally adjusted price growth accelerated in the third quarter compared with the preceding quarter. The regulator cited higher motor fuel prices as one factor.
The Bank of Russia believes the economy continues to grow at a moderate pace, while inflation expectations among households and businesses remain high. Its baseline scenario puts the average key rate in 2027 at 12.5–13.5%. The bank expects inflation to return to its 4% target in 2027 but warns of risks stemming from domestic demand and external economic conditions.
The key rate affects borrowing costs, deposit returns and financing conditions for businesses. Keeping it high means the regulator does not yet see grounds for faster monetary easing. The next rate-setting meeting is scheduled for December 18.