The statistical model estimates that between 374,000 and 770,000 Russian service members may have been killed in the war against Ukraine by late October 2026. It puts total Russian casualties, including those killed and wounded, at approximately 1.4 million to 2.1 million.
The Economist has published the model's methodology and data in an open repository. Its calculations draw on public and leaked intelligence estimates, changes to the front line and measures of fighting intensity.
These figures are estimated ranges subject to uncertainty, not individually verified deaths. The model's estimates may change as new information becomes available.